I’ve picked up a few games for MLB.com lately and while I’m no longer making a living as a baseball beat writer, I still have some thoughts. This might be the place to share them.
Joe Siegler over at Rangerfans.com (full disclosure: I used to run that site as a college student, but I have no involvement with it anymore) compared last year’s Rangers ace Cliff Lee and this year’s surprise All-Star Alexi Ogando, who has been solid in his first year as a starter.
Joe concludes that while Lee’s numbers with the Phillies this year are slightly better than Ogando’s, Ogando is by far the better bargain salary-wise. This is true, but any analysis of Ogando’s 2011 season thus far shows a significant drop-off in the second half of the season.
Ogando has started 23 games this season, but the first 12 starts and the second 11 were of radically different quality. In his first 12 starts, Ogando was 7-0 with a 2.10 ERA, averaging about 6 2/3 innings per outing. In his next 11 starts, Ogando was 5-5 with a 5.03 ERA, lasting about 5 1/3 innings per start.
Is he running out of steam in the dog days of August, having thrown more than 100 innings more than he threw last season (and about 30 more innings than he pitched in his entire minor league career of four seasons)? That’s certainly a plausible theory.
But there’s another much more worrisome idea out there for why Ogando has dropped off: other teams have figured him out. Though he has awesome stuff, he’s not particularly unpredictable in his pitch selection. He throws hard and has a good slider, but not much else.
Ogando has faced 12 different teams this season. He has faced six of them twice and five of them three times.
In the 12 first meetings, he was 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 3.24 strikeouts/bases on balls, a WHIP of 0.943 and an average innings/start of 6.36 (in other words, roughly 6 1/3).
In his six starts in which teams were seeing him for the second time this season, Ogando was 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA, 3.00 SO/BB, 1.135 WHIP and 6.17 IP/GS (just shy of 6 1/3).
In Ogando’s five third meetings, he was 2-1 with a 6.67 ERA, 2.89 SO/BB, 1.630 WHIP and 5.40 IP/GS (more than 5 1/3).
In other words, in almost every single measure, Ogando was better in his first outing against teams than his second, and his second meetings were better than his third.
Another way to look at it is breaking down first meetings vs. all subsequent meetings:
1st meeting: 12 GS, 8-2, 76 1/3 IP, 55 H, 19 ER, 17 BB, 55 SO, 2.24 ERA
2nd/3rd meetings: 11 GS, 4-3, 64 IP, 67 H, 33 ER, 19 BB, 56 SO, 4.64 ERA
Chalk it up to fatigue or familiarity; either way, it’s not a good sign. If the season ended today, the Rangers’ ALDS opponent would be the wild-card Red Sox, a team against which Ogando has yet to start. (He pitched 4 1/3 innings in four games against them last season, allowing only earned run.) He’ll probably face them once this regular season — next week.
The other two AL division leaders are New York and Detroit, both of which have faced Ogando twice this year.
Don’t be surprised if Ogando is back in the bullpen in the playoffs.
Here are the raw numbers.